Saturday, August 13, 2011

NFC East Preview

The NFC East will once again be a battle between great teams for the divisional title. Overall I see the division winning more games this year than last year but at the expense of one team dropping a few more wins. After going through the season schedule and going through the tie breaker process after picking each individual game, all four teams will finish in the same order but this year three teams from the NFC East will be going to the playoffs.

The one team that will not make the playoffs out of the NFC East, and the team that will drop a few more wins from last year are the Washington Redskins. Surprised? I doubt you are. The Redskins look to be a mess right now, and playing the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys twice a year means you have to have it together to survive. Last year the Redskins went 6-10, this year their win total will only be half that. Just looking at the Redskins offensive personal is enough to see that immediate success is not coming. Tim Hightower will be playing in Washington for the first time, and while Hightower has played well in Arizona, he has yet to surpass 750 yards in a season and only reached 10 touchdowns once in his three year career. The good news for Hightower is that Mike Shanahan has made average running backs in the NFL into MVP candidates. However, that is about all the good news the Redskins have offensively. Santana Moss has been one of the most productive and consistent wide receivers in the league for the past eight years, Moss is the Redskins number one weapon offensively. Moss will continue to be very productive but his numbers will definitely not be better than before and if anything will fall off slightly. Two things will affect Moss this year and the years following, first is his age, Moss is now 32, and second is the guy throwing him the ball. Rex Grossman is not a step up from Donovan McNabb, as much as Mike Shanahan wishes he was. Grossman has not played in all sixteen regular season games since 2006 with the Chicago Bears, since then Grossman has only played in seventeen games and started in just eleven of those. Grossman is not going to be leading the Redskins to any playoff or even winning seasons in the near future. Even with the addition of Donte Stallworth, not because Grossman is horrible but because Stallworth would not help any quarterback at this point in his career. Stallworth has jumped from four different teams in the past four years and his production has gotten worse each year. The Redskins do not have much to offer and are going to leave their fans with another losing season as they go 3-13 this year.

If we awarded Super Bowl wins from hype and looking at teams “on paper”, then the Dallas Cowboys should have won about two Super Bowls in the past five years. Last year was a large disappointment for the Cowboys, not only did they start poorly but they also saw Tony Romo go out for the rest of the season due to injuries after just six games. Jon Kitna did a good job filling in for Romo but the hole was already too deep and Kitna was still no Romo. This year if Romo can stay healthy the Cowboys will put up a much better record than their lack luster 6-10 performance from last year. The running game is the one area that the Cowboys could use more production out of offensively. Felix Jones is a capable back but needs to step up or the Cowboys need to come up with a better way to utilize Jones in their system. Dropping Roy Williams was one of the best decisions that the Cowboys made thus far this year. Williams was dead weight in payroll and taking up a roster spot. Romo has plenty of options to throw too, Miles Austin has exploded onto the season two years ago and will continue to perform well, and Dez Bryant is a consistent contributor that will be an excellent number two receiver. Romo’s favorite target might be tight end Jason Witten, Witten is one of the best tight ends in the NFL and has hauled in over a thousand yards each of the past two years along with a combined eleven touchdowns. The ‘D’ in Dallas will be present as always. The line will still be anchored by Marcus Spears and DeMarcus Ware will be head hunting running backs and occasional quarterbacks from the blind side. Cowboys bounce back this year and sneak in the playoffs over the Saints with the tie breaker and go 10-6.

The Giants missed the playoffs based on the tie breaker as the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers pushed them out and took the sixth seed. This year will be a little brighter for the Giants. They have not dramatically improved from off season moves but they are a good enough team that they do not need more help to produce a playoff berth. The Giants still have one of the top defensive lines in the NFL; expect Osi Umenyiora to have another year with double digit sacks. The running game will be just as strong if not stronger than last year with the one-two punch of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw ran for just over 1200 yards last year and Jacobs just over 800 yards; they also combined for 17 rushing touchdowns and just under 400 receiving yards. Eli Manning will have his top two receivers returning as Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks both looks to have close to or above thousand yard receiving seasons. Manning had a good year last season; throwing fewer interceptions would have made it a great year. He threw for just over 4,000 yards, the second most in his career, the most touchdowns with four more than any year previous but also for five more interceptions than any previous year also. Like his brother Peyton, Eli will only get better and smarter over the next few years; Eli’s interceptions will dwindle slightly this year as the rest of his numbers stay the same. Giants will go 10-6, and have the tie breaker over the Cowboys for the fifth seed in the playoffs.

The Philadelphia Eagles are already being given the passage to the Super Bowl and some even say the Lombardi Trophy. It is difficult to not pick them immediately as being at least the NFC champions I admit, but for right now I am putting them at the top of the NFC East. It is near impossible to find a weakness in the Eagles in more than one or two positions offensively or defensively. They do have three of the best corner backs in the league now, Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Asante Samuel. I would actually look to Samuel as having the biggest year out of the three as far as interceptions go if he starts in the slot position. Basically whoever will be in the slot position out of the three will end up with a lot of picks. They will most likely have more freedom and will not be covering as talented receivers compared to the other two outside. Between Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie, and Samuel, and the Eagles ridiculous blitz packages they bring, good luck ever having success passing the ball against them. On the opposite side of the ball the Eagles also now have three receivers that one could say compliments the three cornerbacks in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and newly signed Steve Smith. If a defense comes up with a scheme to cover Jackson, Maclin and Smith well they still have to deal with LeSean McCoy and now Ronnie Brown out of the backfield. McCoy averaged over five yards a carry last year and had almost 600 yards receiving, not bad for a running back. Ronnie Brown will bring more size to the Eagles backfield when McCoy is taking a breather. Although do not be surprised if the Eagles begin to run a few wildcat formations. Brown is already familiar with the wildcat from Miami, McCoy is beyond athletic enough to run it and the Eagles already have a speedy running back with a cannon arm playing quarterback in Michael Vick to begin with. Vick is what brings this offense together, he is the best scrambling quarterback the NFL has ever seen and has one of the strongest arms the NFL has ever seen as well, making it easy to fling it way downfield when the defense breaks down. As long as Vick stays healthy, oh wait, that’s right they also have Vince Young who is just the bigger slightly slower version of Vick at backup. I must admit, I almost convinced myself the Eagles will win the Super Bowl after just writing this brief preview of their team. Eagles will go 12-4 with the second seed in the NFC only because of play in their tough division.

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